Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
