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The gravest possible consequences of the global heating for the UK have been mapped by researchers, ranging from a blistering 4C increase in temperatures to a 2-metre surge in ocean levels. An alternative projection envisions a drop of 6C in temperature following the collapse of key Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt farming and energy needs.

Possible Events, Not Forecasts

These impacts, certain ones are associated with climate tipping points, are viewed as improbable but possible. The researchers stated that these models addressed a shortfall in risk assessment that had rendered the UK not ready for catastrophic possibilities.

"The climate extremes we have detailed aren’t predictions, but they are credible," stated the lead researcher who oversaw the study. "Britain has been planning without the tools to plan for catastrophic outcomes. We've now supplied planners what they need to prepare for climate outcomes they pray never occur, but dare not dismiss."

A Suite of Harsh Climate Scenarios

Another collection of severe models maps the possible scale of harsh climate between now and the close of the 2100s. These show that temperatures could skyrocket in some months by up to 6C above the norm, while precipitation could be three times typical amounts.

The likelihood of the worst-case outcomes coming to pass could not be calculated due to uncertainty about what steps will be implemented to combat global warming and how the Earth's systems will behave. This analysis was described as similar to defence planning or scenario planning for financial systems.

Critical Scenario Highlights

• Four-Degree Warming: Planetary heating exceeding 4C by 2100 could transpire if climate action collapses or if vicious cycles such as the tropical forests becoming a net carbon source emit its enormous store of carbon. This would lead to extreme and prolonged heatwaves and water shortages plaguing the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A major ocean current, the AMOC, is weakening and becoming unstable due to global heating. A collapse beginning in 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Crop production would struggle enormously and water supplies would be fundamentally reshaped," explained the professor.
• Rapid Sea Level Rise: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if polar ice in Greenland and Antarctica melt abruptly, inundating seaside communities. Differing from the other scenarios, this threat is already recognized by planners.
• Pollution Paradox: Temperatures could also be increased by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is sharply cut. This unexpected result occurs because pollution particles from burning coal reflect solar radiation from reaching the ground.

Building Resilience Against the Worst

These dire projections could be utilized in planning the building of critical national infrastructure, such as housing developments, power generation facilities and flood defences. Awareness of these climate risks could also hasten the push to slash carbon pollution.

The research developed the worst-case scenarios using a combination of real-world events, climate models and established principles. The scenarios do not take into account international cascading effects such as the agricultural collapse and increased conflict.

The research was initiated as part of a national climate resilience programme. Previous assessments have stated that insufficient focus was being paid to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

The government's climate advisors has said that the UK must "prepare for two degrees of warming" and assess the risks for severe warming. Earlier government strategies have been criticised as being "very weak" by environmental groups.

An official statement noted: "Global warming is at the core of this government’s agenda, both preparing for impacts and establishing itself as a clean energy superpower. It is essential that the UK is ready for the impacts."